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Agricultural activities have been recognized as an important driver of land cover and land use change (LCLUC) and have significantly impacted the ecosystem feedback to climate by altering land surface properties. A reliable historical cropland distribution dataset is crucial for understanding and quantifying the legacy effects of agriculture-related LCLUC. While several LCLUC datasets have the potential to depict cropland patterns in the conterminous US, there remains a dearth of a relatively high-resolution datasets with crop type details over a long period. To address this gap, we reconstructed historical cropland density and crop type maps from 1850 to 2021 at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km by integrating county-level crop-specific inventory datasets, census data, and gridded LCLUC products. Different from other databases, we tracked the planting area dynamics of all crops in the US, excluding idle and fallow farm land and cropland pasture. The results showed that the crop acreages for nine major crops derived from our map products are highly consistent with the county-level inventory data, with a residual less than 0.2×103 ha (0.2 kha) in most counties (>75 %) during the entire study period. Temporally, the US total crop acreage has increased by 118×106 ha (118 Mha) from 1850 to 2021, primarily driven by corn (30 Mha) and soybean (35 Mha). Spatially, the hot spots of cropland distribution shifted from the Eastern US to the Midwest and the Great Plains, and the dominant crop types (corn and soybean) expanded northwestward. Moreover, we found that the US cropping diversity experienced a significant increase from the 1850s to the 1960s, followed by a dramatic decline in the recent 6 decades under intensified agriculture. Generally, this newly developed dataset could facilitate spatial data development, with respect to delineating crop-specific management practices, and enable the quantification of cropland change impacts on the environment. Annual cropland density and crop type maps are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22822838.v2 (Ye et al., 2023). 

Abstract Effective nitrogen fertilizer management is crucial for reducing nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions while ensuring food security within planetary boundaries. However, climate change might also interact with management practices to alter N₂O emission and emission factors (EFs), adding further uncertainties to estimating mitigation potentials. Here, we developed a new hybrid modeling framework that integrates a machine learning model with an ensemble of eight process‐based models to project EFs under different climate and nitrogen policy scenarios. Our findings reveal that EFs are dynamically modulated by environmental changes, including climate, soil properties, and nitrogen management practices. Under low‐ambition nitrogen regulation policies, EF would increase from 1.18%–1.22% in 2010 to 1.27%–1.34% by 2050, representing a relative increase of 4.4%–11.4% and exceeding the IPCC tier‐1 EF of 1%. This trend is particularly pronounced in tropical and subtropical regions with high nitrogen inputs, where EFs could increase by 0.14%–0.35% (relative increase of 11.9%–17%). In contrast, high‐ambition policies have the potential to mitigate the increases in EF caused by climate change, possibly leading to slight decreases in EFs. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that global EFs are expected to continue rising due to warming and regional drying–wetting cycles, even in the absence of changes in nitrogen management practices. This asymmetrical influence of nitrogen fertilizers on EFs, driven by climate change, underscores the urgent need for immediate N₂O emission reductions and further assessments of mitigation potentials. This hybrid modeling framework offers a computationally efficient approach to projecting future N₂O emissions across various climate, soil, and nitrogen management scenarios, facilitating socio‐economic assessments and policy‐making efforts. 

This dataset contains yearly projections of emission factors (EFs) for fertilizer-induced direct nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions across the global agricultural lands with a spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5° from 1990 to 2050. Emission factor (EF) is defined as the amount of N2O emitted per unit of nitrogen (N) fertilizer applied, expressed in percentage (%). They are developed from a hybrid modeling framework, Dym-EF (more details can be found in Li et al., 2024). The framework integrates machine learning approaches with an ensemble of eight process-based models from The Global N2O Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (NMIP2) to learn the relationship between EF dynamics and multiple environmental factors, such as climate, soil properties, nitrogen fertilizer input, and other agricultural management practices. After the hybrid modeling framework was extensively validated, we applied it to develop EF projections under different nitrogen management policies and climate change scenarios, including future climate data from 37 Global Climate Models (GCMs). The annual median and standard deviation (SD) of EF under each scenario represent the projection median and variability derived from climate input data using the 37 GCMs.The dataset filenames follow the structure: 'Scenario'_'N regulation'_'Median/SD', where 'Scenario' corresponds to the different nitrogen management and climate scenarios (e.g., INMS1, INMS2, and INMS3), 'N regulation' corresponds to the different nitrogen management levels (e.g., BAU, LowNRegul, and MedNRegul), and 'Median/SD' indicates whether the file contains the median (Median) or standard deviation (SD) of the projections. All relevant data and further details can be found in the supplementary materials and the cited references.INMS1: Business-as-usual, Land use regulation: Medium, Diet: Meat & dairy-rich, Ambition level: LowINMS2: Low-nitrogen regulation, Land use regulation: Medium, Diet: Medium meat & dairy, Ambition level: LowINMS3: Medium-nitrogen regulation, Land use regulation: Medium, Diet: Medium meat & dairy, Ambition level: ModerateINMS4: High-nitrogen regulation, Land use regulation: Medium, Diet: Medium meat & dairy, Ambition level: HighINMS5: Best-case, Land use regulation: Strong, Diet: Low meat & dairy, Ambition level: HighINMS6: Best-case “Plus”, Land use regulation: Strong, Diet: Ambitious diet shift and food-loss/waste reductions, Ambition level: HighINMS7: Bioenergy, Land use regulation: Strong, Diet: Low meat & dairy, Ambition level: HighWe developed this data using the “ranger” package in R 4.1.1, which is accessible at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/ranger/. The optimization of the two hyperparameters (ntree and mtry) was performed using the ‘caret’ package, available at https://topepo.github.io/caret/.This database is developed by Li, L., C. Lu, W. Winiwarter, H. Tian, J. Canadell, A. Ito, A.K. Jain, S. Kou-Giesbrecht, S. Pan, N. Pan, H. Shi, Q. Sun, N. Vuichard, S. Ye., S. Zaehle, Q. Zhu. Enhanced nitrous oxide emission factors due to climate change increase the mitigation challenge in the agricultural sector Global Change Biology (In Press) 

By integrating multi-source cross-scale inventories and satellite-based datasets, we reconstructed the annual crop density and crop type map (excluding summer idle/fallow, cropland pasture) in the contiguous US at 1km×1km resolution from 1850 to 2021. The annual crop density map depicts the distribution and fraction of cultivated land, while the crop type map displays the corresponding crop type. The developed datasets fill the data gap in lacking of crop type extent and type maps, which can support the environmental assessment and socioeconomic analysis related to agricultural activities. (Supplement to: Shuchao, Ye et al. (2023): Annual time-series 1-km maps of crop area and types in the conterminous US (CropAT-US): cropping diversity changes during 1850-2021.)